<div dir="ltr">Hey guys,<br><br>I'm pretty sure this is the *uncensored* discussion list - right? Well under that assumption, I wanted to send a quick hello from the trenches of the campaign! I have been helping out the economic policy team since the end of July, and will be working from headquarters in Chicago through Nov 4th. I work under Jason Furman and Austan Goolsbee, the econ advisors for the campaign. Brian Deese is deputy economic director for the campaign and is the person I work with most closely. For those who know him, he is utterly brilliant and a treat to work with.<br>
<br>So -- this week has been utterly insane. The last 90 hours have been among the most historic of financial markets history. The campaign has taken an active voice in responding to everything going on; blaming the Republicans for 8 years of deregulatory / ideological economic policy that has created this mess; put forth a new vision under Obama and explained several REAL things that he would do to change course in the financial markets and economy more broadly.<br>
<br>My perspective on this is: everything going on in the financial markets is mind blowing, mostly because our govt and financial institutions are facing utterly unprecedented challenges and decisions, in very real time. In the last few days, we have seen the Fed and Treasury almost act outside the bounds of "law", because law has not been created yet to govern certain things going on -- eg, what rules/laws tell a central bank how to govern the world's largest insurance company after it gains an 80% equity stake??<br>
<br>Anyway, I'd love some discussion from people on these issues and what they think about everything they are reading. I wanted to share a few things below, which should at least give us some optimism regarding the campaign. The best news is: Palin is off the front pages, and voters seem to trust us more on the economy.<br>
<br>More soon,<br><br>Sara<br><br>----------<br><div id=":2yu" class="ArwC7c ckChnd"><div dir="ltr">Recent upticks in the polls, centered on the economy.<br><br>The two polls everyone is mentioning are:<br><br><ul><li>CBS/NYTIMES (Poll conducted Friday through Tues) : <b>Obama + 5 (49/44</b>) </li>
</ul><br><ul><li>QUINIPIAC: <b>Obama + 4 (49/45)</b> **14 point lead
among women AND ** Winning on tax cuts (51% voters say McCain's tax cut
wil benefit the rich; 55% say Obama's tax will benefit middle class and
poor)</li></ul><br><br>Sara<br><br><br><font size="+2"><b>Fundamentally, McCain Has Something to Worry About</b></font><br><p><font size="-1">By Dan Balz<br>Washington Post Staff Writer<br>Thursday, September 18, 2008; A03<br>
</font></p>
<p><a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/m000303/" target="_blank">John McCain</a>
has a fundamentals problem. It is political as well as economic, and it
remains the biggest obstacle standing between the Arizona senator and
the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/The+White+House?tid=informline" target="_blank">White House</a>.</p><p>McCain didn't single-handedly create this problem, but he made it worse Monday when, as <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Wall+Street?tid=informline" target="_blank">Wall Street</a>
was melting down, he uttered words -- "the fundamentals of our economy
are strong" -- that totally muddied the real message he meant to
deliver. <a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/o000167/" target="_blank">Barack Obama</a> has hammered him at every stop since as a man out of touch with reality.</p><p>Were
McCain known as a student of the economy, this instance of a badly
delivered statement would matter little. Because he is known as someone
who is not, it matters plenty. McCain has responded by ratcheting up
his rhetoric about cracking down on Wall Street and its regulators in
Washington.</p><p>As with his Monday misstep, once again the message is
mixed. Guns blazing, McCain is promising to ride into town to . . .
oversee the creation of a commission to study the problem. He is
speaking out in favor of regulation but against a history of opposing a
heavy government hand. He has expressed his outrage, but what is the
balance he would strike between the old and new McCain?</p><p>In many
ways, the opening provided to Obama by McCain's verbal misstep is the
least of his problems. What should worry the McCain camp most is the
intersection of a renewed focus on the economy and the underlying
political climate that has created such difficulties for McCain and his
party all year.</p><p>McCain's advisers have noted for months that the
political environment could hardly be worse for their candidate. None
of them has ever suggested that the political fundamentals remain
sound. Quite the opposite.</p><p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/George+W.+Bush?tid=informline" target="_blank">President Bush</a>'s
approval rating appears stuck close to its lowest-ever levels --
hovering just above 30 percent. Nearly eight in 10 Americans believe
the country is heading in the wrong direction. The Republican Party's
image is worse than the Democrats' and well below the levels it reached
when Bush won reelection four years ago.</p><p>McCain's party made
gains after his convention, but it's not clear whether that was a
temporary or lasting improvement. Four years ago on Election Day, the
exit polls showed an electorate at parity between Republicans and
Democrats. That's not likely to be the case in November.</p><p>Combine
that with the economic indicators. The stock market's plunge has wiped
out recent gains and more. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.1
percent and has risen a full percentage point since March. Four years
ago this month, it was at 5.4 percent and heading down. The economy has
been shedding jobs monthly throughout the year.</p><p>In the past, the
unemployment rate was the most sensitive political indicator. Today,
both the jobless rate and the stock market can send shivers of anxiety
through the electorate -- as they are this week. Nothing in all of that
is good for John McCain's hopes of winning the White House.</p><p>Only
once since World War II has a political party maintained control of the
presidency for three consecutive terms, which was from 1981 to 1993,
with Republicans <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Ronald+Reagan?tid=informline" target="_blank">Ronald Reagan</a> and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/George+H.W.+Bush?tid=informline" target="_blank">George H.W. Bush</a>. <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Dwight+D.+Eisenhower?tid=informline" target="_blank">Dwight Eisenhower</a>'s eight years were followed by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/John+F.+Kennedy?tid=informline" target="_blank">John F. Kennedy</a> and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Lyndon+Johnson?tid=informline" target="_blank">Lyndon Johnson</a>'s eight years, which were followed by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Richard+Nixon?tid=informline" target="_blank">Richard Nixon</a> and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Gerald+Ford?tid=informline" target="_blank">Gerald Ford</a>'s eight years, which were followed by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Jimmy+Carter?tid=informline" target="_blank">Jimmy Carter</a>'s four years.</p>
<p>Voters declined to give Democrats a third term after <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Bill+Clinton?tid=informline" target="_blank">Bill Clinton</a>'s
presidency, despite a robust economy and a nation at peace. After the
tumult of George W. Bush's eight years, what might compel voters to
reward the Republicans with a third consecutive term in control of the
White House?</p><p>McCain has managed to make the best of this terrible environment. His pick of <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Sarah+Palin?tid=informline" target="_blank">Sarah Palin</a>
proved enormously effective in the short term. His party appears newly
energized, even enthusiastic about its ticket, even if they still
distrust the man at the top of it.</p><p>He has reinvented himself for
the final stretch of the campaign -- or perhaps found a voice that had
been missing throughout this election cycle. As in the primaries, he
has been reduced to basics, and they have served him well over the past
two months. His best hope of winning is to make the campaign a test of
character.</p><p>How long can he sustain all this? Absent external
events, he was doing well. With the economic news of this week, the
polls hint at a deflation in his position. The playing field has once
again tilted slightly toward Obama, who now must take advantage of it.</p><p>This
remains as competitive a race as many had forecast. National polls are
tight. Battleground states are tight. But the underlying structure that
has governed this campaign from the start has not improved. That is the
real fundamentals problem for John McCain.</p><br><p><br></p><div>September 18, 2008</div>
<h1>
McCain Seen as Less Likely to Bring Change, Poll Finds
</h1>
<div>By <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/robin_toner/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More Articles by Robin Toner" target="_blank">ROBIN TONER</a> and <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/adam_nagourney/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More Articles by Adam Nagourney" target="_blank">ADAM NAGOURNEY</a></div>
<p>WASHINGTON — Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/john_mccain/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about John McCain." target="_blank">John McCain</a> is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Barack Obama" target="_blank">Barack Obama</a>.
He is widely viewed as a "typical Republican" who would continue or
expand President Bush's policies, according to the latest New York
Times/CBS News poll.</p>
<p> Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr.
McCain had enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women
after his selection of Gov. <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/sarah_palin/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Sarah Palin." target="_blank">Sarah Palin</a>
of Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates "the
Palin effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest. The
contest appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions
and before the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support
of 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr.
McCain, a difference within the poll's margin of sampling error, and
statistically unchanged from the tally in the last New York Times/CBS
News poll, in mid-August. </p>
<p>The poll showed that Mr. McCain had some enduring strengths,
including a substantial advantage over Mr. Obama as a potential
commander in chief. It found that for the first time, 50 percent of
those surveyed in the Times/CBS News poll said they considered that the
troop buildup in Iraq, a policy that Mr. McCain championed from the
start, had made things better there.</p>
<p>The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain's
convention, and his selection of Ms. Palin, had excited Republican base
voters about his candidacy, which is no small thing in a contest that
continues to be so tight: 47 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters
described themselves as enthused about the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Republican Party" target="_blank">Republican Party</a>'s
presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions.
As often happens at this time of year, partisans are coalescing around
their party's nominees and independents are increasingly the
battleground.</p>
<p>But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection
has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters;
there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among
women in general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain
and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among
white women, 44 percent to 37 percent.</p>
<p>By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/john_kerry/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about John Kerry." target="_blank">John Kerry</a> of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.</p>
<p>Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents,
and a 16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44. Mr. McCain
was leading by 17 points among white men and by the same margin among
voters 65 and over. Before the convention, voters 65 and older were
closely divided. In the latest poll, middle-age voters, 45 to 64, were
almost evenly divided between the two.</p>
<p>The latest Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll was taken Friday
through Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 registered voters.
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points
for all respondents and for registered voters. </p>
<p>The poll was taken during a period of extraordinary turmoil on Wall
Street. By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the top
issue affecting their vote decision, and they continued to express deep
pessimism about the nation's economic future. They continued to express
greater confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to manage the economy, even
as Mr. McCain has aggressively sought to raise doubts about it.</p>
<p>This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin's qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/joseph_r_jr_biden/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Joseph R. Biden Jr." target="_blank">Joseph R. Biden Jr.</a>
of Delaware, Mr. Obama's running mate. More than 6 in 10 said they
would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms.
Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said
Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that
cut across party lines.</p>
<p>And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Ms. Palin
more to help him win the election than because he thought that she was
well qualified to be president; by contrast, 31 percent said they
thought that Mr. Obama had picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the
election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was
well qualified for the job.</p>
<p>This poll was taken right after Ms. Palin sat down for a series of high-profile interviews with <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/charles_gibson/index.html?inline=nyt-per" title="More articles about Charles Gibson." target="_blank">Charles Gibson</a> on ABC News.</p>
<p>Over the last two weeks, Mr. McCain has increasingly tried to
distance himself from his party and President Bush, running as an
outsider against Washington. The poll suggested the urgency of Mr.
McCain's task: The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the way
Mr. Bush is conducting his job, 68 percent, was as high as it has been
for any sitting president in the history of New York Times polling. And
81 percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>The poll found that 46 percent of voters thought Mr. McCain would
continue Mr. Bush's policies, while 22 percent said he would be more
conservative than Mr. Bush. (About one-quarter said a McCain presidency
would be less conservative than Mr. Bush's.) At a time when Mr. McCain
has tried to appeal to independent voters by separating himself from
his party, notably with his convention speech, 57 percent of all voters
said they viewed him as a typical Republican, compared with 40 percent
who said he was a different kind of Republican.</p>
<p>Although nearly half of voters also described Mr. Obama as a typical
Democrat, the party's brand is not as diminished as the Republicans';
the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/democratic_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org" title="More articles about Democratic Party" target="_blank">Democratic Party</a>
had a favorability rating of 50 percent in August, compared with 37
percent for the Republicans, a fairly consistent trend in the Times/CBS
News Poll since 2006, and part of the general political landscape that
many analysts believe favors the Democrats.</p>
<p>In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37
percent said that Mr. McCain would bring real change to Washington, up
from 28 percent before the two parties' conventions. But 65 percent of
those polled said that Mr. Obama would bring real change to Washington.</p>
<p>Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Mr. Obama has maintained
an edge on several key measures of presidential leadership, including
economic stewardship. Sixty percent of voters said they were confident
in his ability to make the right decisions on the economy, compared
with 53 percent who felt that way about Mr. McCain. Sixty percent also
said he understood the needs and problems "of people like yourself,"
compared with 48 percent who said that of Mr. McCain.</p>
<p>More than twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the
image of the United States around the world, 55 percent, compared with
those who believed a McCain presidency would do so. Mr. Obama also gets
high marks for "sharing the values most Americans try to live by,"
despite concerted Republican efforts to portray him as elite and out of
touch with average voters. Sixty-six percent said Mr. Obama shared
their values, compared with 61 percent who said that about Mr. McCain.</p>
<p>Mr. McCain, however, was maintaining some core advantages,
particularly on preparedness to be president and ability to serve as
commander in chief. Forty-eight percent said Mr. Obama was prepared
enough to be president, compared with 71 percent who rated Mr. McCain
as adequately prepared. </p>
<p>Fifty-two percent said it was "very likely" that Mr. McCain would be
an effective commander in chief, twice as many as felt that way about
Mr. Obama.</p>
<p>The two men received similar rankings when voters were asked about
what had long been perceived as a McCain strength: the ability to make
the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Fifty-two percent said they
were "very" or "somewhat" confident in Mr. Obama's ability on this
front; 56 percent said they felt that way about Mr. McCain.</p>
<p> In general, Ms. Palin was viewed more favorably (40 percent) than
unfavorably (30 percent). She was particularly popular among fellow
Republicans, conservatives and white voters who describe themselves as
evangelical Christians, which explains her energizing effect on the
Republican base. Nearly 70 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters said they
were enthusiastic about the selection of Ms. Palin; 27 percent of Mr.
Obama's supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of
Mr. Biden.</p>
<p>When asked who they thought would win in November, 45 percent said Mr. Obama and 38 percent said Mr. McCain. </p>
<div><p>Reporting was contributed by Marjorie Connelly in Washington, and Marina Stefan, Dalia Sussman and Megan Thee in New York.</p></div><br></div>
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