[YLS Blue] Hey from the trenches

[Sara Aronchick]

Hey guys,

I'm pretty sure this is the *uncensored* discussion list - right? Well under
that assumption, I wanted to send a quick hello from the trenches of the
campaign! I have been helping out the economic policy team since the end of
July, and will be working from headquarters in Chicago through Nov 4th. I
work under Jason Furman and Austan Goolsbee, the econ advisors for the
campaign. Brian Deese is deputy economic director for the campaign and is
the person I work with most closely. For those who know him, he is utterly
brilliant and a treat to work with.

So -- this week has been utterly insane. The last 90 hours have been among
the most historic of financial markets history. The campaign has taken an
active voice in responding to everything going on; blaming the Republicans
for 8 years of deregulatory / ideological economic policy that has created
this mess; put forth a new vision under Obama and explained several REAL
things that he would do to change course in the financial markets and
economy more broadly.

My perspective on this is: everything going on in the financial markets is
mind blowing, mostly because our govt and financial institutions are facing
utterly unprecedented challenges and decisions, in very real time. In the
last few days, we have seen the Fed and Treasury almost act outside the
bounds of "law", because law has not been created yet to govern certain
things going on -- eg, what rules/laws tell a central bank how to govern the
world's largest insurance company after it gains an 80% equity stake??

Anyway, I'd love some discussion from people on these issues and what they
think about everything they are reading. I wanted to share a few things
below, which should at least give us some optimism regarding the campaign.
The best news is: Palin is off the front pages, and voters seem to trust us
more on the economy.

More soon,

Sara

----------
Recent upticks in the polls, centered on the economy.

The two polls everyone is mentioning are:


   - CBS/NYTIMES (Poll conducted Friday through Tues) : *Obama + 5 (49/44*)



   - QUINIPIAC: *Obama + 4 (49/45)* **14 point lead among women AND **
   Winning on tax cuts (51% voters say McCain's tax cut wil benefit the rich;
   55% say Obama's tax will benefit middle class and poor)



Sara


*Fundamentally, McCain Has Something to Worry About*

By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 18, 2008; A03

John McCain <http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/m000303/>has
a fundamentals problem. It is political as well as economic, and it
remains the biggest obstacle standing between the Arizona senator and the White
House<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/The+White+House?tid=informline>
.

McCain didn't single-handedly create this problem, but he made it worse
Monday when, as Wall
Street<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Wall+Street?tid=informline>was
melting down, he uttered words -- "the fundamentals of our economy are
strong" -- that totally muddied the real message he meant to deliver. Barack
Obama <http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/o000167/> has
hammered him at every stop since as a man out of touch with reality.

Were McCain known as a student of the economy, this instance of a badly
delivered statement would matter little. Because he is known as someone who
is not, it matters plenty. McCain has responded by ratcheting up his
rhetoric about cracking down on Wall Street and its regulators in
Washington.

As with his Monday misstep, once again the message is mixed. Guns blazing,
McCain is promising to ride into town to . . . oversee the creation of a
commission to study the problem. He is speaking out in favor of regulation
but against a history of opposing a heavy government hand. He has expressed
his outrage, but what is the balance he would strike between the old and new
McCain?

In many ways, the opening provided to Obama by McCain's verbal misstep is
the least of his problems. What should worry the McCain camp most is the
intersection of a renewed focus on the economy and the underlying political
climate that has created such difficulties for McCain and his party all
year.

McCain's advisers have noted for months that the political environment could
hardly be worse for their candidate. None of them has ever suggested that
the political fundamentals remain sound. Quite the opposite.

President Bush<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/George+W.+Bush?tid=informline>'s
approval rating appears stuck close to its lowest-ever levels -- hovering
just above 30 percent. Nearly eight in 10 Americans believe the country is
heading in the wrong direction. The Republican Party's image is worse than
the Democrats' and well below the levels it reached when Bush won reelection
four years ago.

McCain's party made gains after his convention, but it's not clear whether
that was a temporary or lasting improvement. Four years ago on Election Day,
the exit polls showed an electorate at parity between Republicans and
Democrats. That's not likely to be the case in November.

Combine that with the economic indicators. The stock market's plunge has
wiped out recent gains and more. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.1
percent and has risen a full percentage point since March. Four years ago
this month, it was at 5.4 percent and heading down. The economy has been
shedding jobs monthly throughout the year.

In the past, the unemployment rate was the most sensitive political
indicator. Today, both the jobless rate and the stock market can send
shivers of anxiety through the electorate -- as they are this week. Nothing
in all of that is good for John McCain's hopes of winning the White House.

Only once since World War II has a political party maintained control of the
presidency for three consecutive terms, which was from 1981 to 1993, with
Republicans Ronald
Reagan<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Ronald+Reagan?tid=informline>and
George
H.W. Bush<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/George+H.W.+Bush?tid=informline>.
Dwight Eisenhower<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Dwight+D.+Eisenhower?tid=informline>'s
eight years were followed by John F.
Kennedy<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/John+F.+Kennedy?tid=informline>and
Lyndon
Johnson<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Lyndon+Johnson?tid=informline>'s
eight years, which were followed by Richard
Nixon<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Richard+Nixon?tid=informline>and
Gerald
Ford<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Gerald+Ford?tid=informline>'s
eight years, which were followed by Jimmy
Carter<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Jimmy+Carter?tid=informline>'s
four years.

Voters declined to give Democrats a third term after Bill
Clinton<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Bill+Clinton?tid=informline>'s
presidency, despite a robust economy and a nation at peace. After the tumult
of George W. Bush's eight years, what might compel voters to reward the
Republicans with a third consecutive term in control of the White House?

McCain has managed to make the best of this terrible environment. His pick
of Sarah Palin<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Sarah+Palin?tid=informline>proved
enormously effective in the short term. His party appears newly
energized, even enthusiastic about its ticket, even if they still distrust
the man at the top of it.

He has reinvented himself for the final stretch of the campaign -- or
perhaps found a voice that had been missing throughout this election cycle.
As in the primaries, he has been reduced to basics, and they have served him
well over the past two months. His best hope of winning is to make the
campaign a test of character.

How long can he sustain all this? Absent external events, he was doing well.
With the economic news of this week, the polls hint at a deflation in his
position. The playing field has once again tilted slightly toward Obama, who
now must take advantage of it.

This remains as competitive a race as many had forecast. National polls are
tight. Battleground states are tight. But the underlying structure that has
governed this campaign from the start has not improved. That is the real
fundamentals problem for John McCain.


September 18, 2008
 McCain Seen as Less Likely to Bring Change, Poll Finds By ROBIN
TONER<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/t/robin_toner/index.html?inline=nyt-per>and
ADAM
NAGOURNEY<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/n/adam_nagourney/index.html?inline=nyt-per>

WASHINGTON — Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his
party has done business in Washington, Senator John
McCain<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/john_mccain/index.html?inline=nyt-per>is
seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than
Senator Barack Obama<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per>.
He is widely viewed as a "typical Republican" who would continue or expand
President Bush's policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News
poll.

Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had
enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women after his
selection of Gov. Sarah
Palin<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/sarah_palin/index.html?inline=nyt-per>of
Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates "the Palin
effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest. The contest
appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before
the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support of 48 percent of
registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, a difference
within the poll's margin of sampling error, and statistically unchanged from
the tally in the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in mid-August.

The poll showed that Mr. McCain had some enduring strengths, including a
substantial advantage over Mr. Obama as a potential commander in chief. It
found that for the first time, 50 percent of those surveyed in the Times/CBS
News poll said they considered that the troop buildup in Iraq, a policy that
Mr. McCain championed from the start, had made things better there.

The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain's convention, and
his selection of Ms. Palin, had excited Republican base voters about his
candidacy, which is no small thing in a contest that continues to be so
tight: 47 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters described themselves as
enthused about the Republican
Party<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org>'s
presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions. As
often happens at this time of year, partisans are coalescing around their
party's nominees and independents are increasingly the battleground.

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has, to
date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no
evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in general.
White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the
conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women, 44 percent to 37
percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading
Senator John Kerry<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/john_kerry/index.html?inline=nyt-per>of
Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent
among white women.

Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents, and a
16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44. Mr. McCain was leading
by 17 points among white men and by the same margin among voters 65 and
over. Before the convention, voters 65 and older were closely divided. In
the latest poll, middle-age voters, 45 to 64, were almost evenly divided
between the two.

The latest Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll was taken Friday through
Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 registered voters. The margin of
sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all respondents
and for registered voters.

The poll was taken during a period of extraordinary turmoil on Wall Street.
By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the top issue
affecting their vote decision, and they continued to express deep pessimism
about the nation's economic future. They continued to express greater
confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to manage the economy, even as Mr. McCain
has aggressively sought to raise doubts about it.

This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin's qualifications to be
president, particularly compared with Senator Joseph R. Biden
Jr.<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/joseph_r_jr_biden/index.html?inline=nyt-per>of
Delaware, Mr. Obama's running mate. More than 6 in 10 said they would
be
concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take
over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be
qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.

And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Ms. Palin more to
help him win the election than because he thought that she was well
qualified to be president; by contrast, 31 percent said they thought that
Mr. Obama had picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the election, while 57
percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was well qualified for the
job.

This poll was taken right after Ms. Palin sat down for a series of
high-profile interviews with Charles
Gibson<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/charles_gibson/index.html?inline=nyt-per>on
ABC News.

Over the last two weeks, Mr. McCain has increasingly tried to distance
himself from his party and President Bush, running as an outsider against
Washington. The poll suggested the urgency of Mr. McCain's task: The
percentage of Americans who disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is conducting his
job, 68 percent, was as high as it has been for any sitting president in the
history of New York Times polling. And 81 percent said the country was
heading in the wrong direction.

The poll found that 46 percent of voters thought Mr. McCain would continue
Mr. Bush's policies, while 22 percent said he would be more conservative
than Mr. Bush. (About one-quarter said a McCain presidency would be less
conservative than Mr. Bush's.) At a time when Mr. McCain has tried to appeal
to independent voters by separating himself from his party, notably with his
convention speech, 57 percent of all voters said they viewed him as a
typical Republican, compared with 40 percent who said he was a different
kind of Republican.

Although nearly half of voters also described Mr. Obama as a typical
Democrat, the party's brand is not as diminished as the Republicans';
the Democratic
Party<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/democratic_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org>had
a favorability rating of 50 percent in August, compared with 37
percent
for the Republicans, a fairly consistent trend in the Times/CBS News Poll
since 2006, and part of the general political landscape that many analysts
believe favors the Democrats.

In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37 percent said
that Mr. McCain would bring real change to Washington, up from 28 percent
before the two parties' conventions. But 65 percent of those polled said
that Mr. Obama would bring real change to Washington.

Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Mr. Obama has maintained an edge
on several key measures of presidential leadership, including economic
stewardship. Sixty percent of voters said they were confident in his ability
to make the right decisions on the economy, compared with 53 percent who
felt that way about Mr. McCain. Sixty percent also said he understood the
needs and problems "of people like yourself," compared with 48 percent who
said that of Mr. McCain.

More than twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the image of
the United States around the world, 55 percent, compared with those who
believed a McCain presidency would do so. Mr. Obama also gets high marks for
"sharing the values most Americans try to live by," despite concerted
Republican efforts to portray him as elite and out of touch with average
voters. Sixty-six percent said Mr. Obama shared their values, compared with
61 percent who said that about Mr. McCain.

Mr. McCain, however, was maintaining some core advantages, particularly on
preparedness to be president and ability to serve as commander in chief.
Forty-eight percent said Mr. Obama was prepared enough to be president,
compared with 71 percent who rated Mr. McCain as adequately prepared.

Fifty-two percent said it was "very likely" that Mr. McCain would be an
effective commander in chief, twice as many as felt that way about Mr.
Obama.

The two men received similar rankings when voters were asked about what had
long been perceived as a McCain strength: the ability to make the right
decisions about the war in Iraq. Fifty-two percent said they were "very" or
"somewhat" confident in Mr. Obama's ability on this front; 56 percent said
they felt that way about Mr. McCain.

In general, Ms. Palin was viewed more favorably (40 percent) than
unfavorably (30 percent). She was particularly popular among fellow
Republicans, conservatives and white voters who describe themselves as
evangelical Christians, which explains her energizing effect on the
Republican base. Nearly 70 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters said they were
enthusiastic about the selection of Ms. Palin; 27 percent of Mr. Obama's
supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Mr. Biden.

When asked who they thought would win in November, 45 percent said Mr. Obama
and 38 percent said Mr. McCain.

Reporting was contributed by Marjorie Connelly in Washington, and Marina
Stefan, Dalia Sussman and Megan Thee in New York.
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