From doug.rand at yale.edu Mon Sep 15 09:53:47 2008 From: doug.rand at yale.edu (Doug Rand) Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2008 09:53:47 -0400 Subject: [YLS-blue] Private campaign list Message-ID: <200809151354.m8FDrxvV005912@pantheon-po10.its.yale.edu> Dear Board, Let's see if this works ... I've established a new Mailman list on a friend's private server, which behaves exactly like the YLDems list. This should be preferable to Google Groups. Don't use the list just yet... Thanks, Doug From doug.rand at yale.edu Tue Sep 16 08:47:23 2008 From: doug.rand at yale.edu (Doug Rand) Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2008 08:47:23 -0400 Subject: [YLS Blue] Important campaign updates Message-ID: <200809161248.m8GClclS015719@pantheon-po28.its.yale.edu> My Fellow YLSers, Two important announcements this morning for anyone interested in a Democratic victory this fall... (1) Volunteers are sought for a *high-priority* voter protection project. This is a ~10-day project, with the first meeting this Thursday at 12pm. If interested, please immediately contact Alex Tausanovitch . (2) You are now subscribed to an email list called "YLS Blue" (formerly YLS Students for Obama). If you want to opt out, see the subscription management link below. Full disclosure on the two relevant email lists: [YLS Blue]: Frequent updates about Democratic campaign involvement -- unmoderated and unaffiliated with the law school. [YLS Dems]: Infrequent organizational updates from YLS Democrats -- moderated and affiliated with the law school. Let me know if you have any questions! Stay tuned, Citizen Doug From scott.anderson at yale.edu Wed Sep 17 13:50:55 2008 From: scott.anderson at yale.edu (Scott Anderson) Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:50:55 -0400 Subject: [YLS Blue] Campaign News - Go to PA this Saturday! Do research for the campaign! Bake for Obama! Message-ID: <29d5bbb40809171050x6c6ce853ld3638519e576983@mail.gmail.com> Hey Obama/Biden supporters! We had a great first meeting with the 1Ls last night. Despite the long day, everyone seemed fired up and ready to get involved! That's great because we've gotten tons of requests for help with various campaign activities. Check out the list below to find out when and how you can make your contribution! --- *Canvass in Scranton, Pennsylvania THIS SATURDAY!* This Saturday, September 20th, we're heading to Scranton, Pennsylvania to canvas neighborhoods, drop literature, and generally help the campaign get the word out! The race is getting closer by the week in Pennsylvania -- in July, Obama was up by 8 points, *but the gap has narrowed to less than 2 points *. Direct voter contact is HUGELY important in winning this race, so come out and help this weekend! For just one day, forget about FIPing, reading, clerkships, and SAWs and make a real impact in a close race: *it's one of the most important things you'll do all year!* *Details: *We're coordinating this trip with the Yale College Dems. We'll leave together around 8 am on Saturday and return by around 8 pm. *The College Dems have funding for gas,* so the trip shouldn't be too expensive. And it's supposed to be beautiful outside! *Interested? *Email your name, school affiliation, and cell phone number to elizabeth.phelps at yale.edu by *Friday at noon*. Also, *we're in need of drivers*, so let us know if you're willing to drive and how many people you can take! --- *Do Research for the Campaign from Home! *We're in the process of assembling remote support teams for several key battleground states, specifically* Ohio and Virginia* and maybe more states to come! Members of these teams will spend *a few (probably 3-4) hours each week from now until November* helping full-time campaign staff do research on election laws, compose memos and other official documents, and assemble all the materials needed to run an effective voter protection operation! *Interested? *Fill out the Volunteer Surveythen send a message to scott.anderson at yale.edu indicating you want to get involved right away! --- *Volunteer for a SPECIAL RESEARCH PROJECT!* We also need volunteers are for a *high-priority* voter protection project. The project requires a degree of discretion, and will probably take about ten days to complete. The first meeting for htis project is *this Thursday at 12pm.* If you're interested in attending and participating, please write to alexander.tausanovitch at yale.edu right away! --- *Target Swing Voters in Florida! *We're coordinating with the campaign to *target certain key swing voting districts in Florida*! Through a special online database typically reserved for full-time campaign staff, we'll be identifying supporters and engaging voters about what issues they care about to help the campaign figure out how to best deploy literature, ad buys, and other resources! *This is one of the most important elements of an effective campaign*, and Florida needs all the help it can get! *Interested? *Write to scott.anderson at yale.edu and we'll pull you into the loop! --- *Help Obama's Pennsylvania Team Recruit Lawyers! * This Monday, September 15th, Pennsylvania's campaign Voter Protection office is launching a *Voter Protection phone bank* to contact local lawyers and law students in Pennsylvania to serve as poll watchers on Election Day. If you can help us call ten people on Monday, we'll be able to add potentially hundreds of volunteers to our roster. We'll supply you with a script and all the information you need. All you need is a telephone (a cell phone is fine) and two or three hours a week. You can also help us by recruiting additional people to make calls on behalf of the Voter Protection Team (a template you can use is enclosed below). *Interested? *Write voterprotection at paforchange.com for more information! A group of students will also be dedicating themselves to this each week, so if you're interested in making a regular contribution as part of a YLS team contact mirra.levitt at yale.edu! --- *Graphic Designer Needed ASAP!* The campaign in Wisconsin needs a graphic designer to help them out with a project as soon as possible. If you're interested, please contact Peter Harrell at pharrell at gmail.com for details. --- *A Special Message from the Obama Health Policy Team! *A study coming out today in Health Affairs projects that 20 million Americans who have employment-based health insurance would lose it under the McCain plan. We need you to help us get the word out by forwarding, cross posting and talking up the following items: *McCain's Radical Agenda* by BOB HERBERT, *The New York Times* "Talk about a shock to the system. Has anyone bothered to notice the radical changes that John McCain and Sarah Palin are planning for the nation's health insurance system? These are changes that will set in motion nothing less than the dismantling of the employer-based coverage that protects most American families. A study coming out Tuesday from scholars at Columbia, Harvard, Purdue and Michigan projects that 20 million Americans who have employment-based health insurance would lose it under the McCain plan." Click here for more. *Why Obama's Health Plan is Better *by David M. Cutler, J. Bradford DeLong, and Ann Marie Marciarille, *Wall Street Journal *"Sustained growth thus requires successful health-care reform. Barack Obama and John McCain propose to lead us in opposite directions -- and the Obama direction is far superior. Sen. Obama's proposal will modernize our current system of employer- and government-provided health care, keeping what works well, and making the investments now that will lead to a more efficient medical system. . . . In contrast, Sen. McCain, who constantly repeats his no-new-taxes promise on the campaign trail, proposes a big tax hike as the solution to our health-care crisis. His plan would raise taxes on workers who receive health benefits, with the idea of encouraging their employers to drop coverage. A study conducted by University of Michigan economist Tom Buchmueller and colleagues published in the journal Health Affairs suggests that the McCain tax hike will lead employers to drop coverage for over 20 million Americans." Click here for more. *20 million could LOSE health insurance under McCain plan* DailyKos.com. Click here for more. --- *Bake for Obama!* Janice Ta, a 2L at the law school, is trying to organize a bake sale in support of the Obama/Biden campaign. She needs volunteers to make signs, man tables, and most of all *TO BAKE*! If you think you might be at all interested, please send her an e-mail at janiceta at gmail.com. The bake sale itself hasn't been scheduled yet, but is aimed to take place sometime in early to mid-October. --- *Have an idea for an event or program? Want to play a role in coordinating future projects and trips?* Then e-mail scott.anderson at yale.edu or marisa.vansaanen at yale.edu about *becoming a Student Organizer* and playing a leadership role in getting the Obama/Biden ticket elected! --- Remember, go to http://sites.google.com/site/ylsstudentsforobama/ to find out more information about upcoming events, to join the mailing list, and to complete our volunteer survey. And don't forget to volunteerwith the national campaign (particularly for Voter Protection workif you're a law student or lawyer)! *Please forward this blurb to anyone you think might be interested!* --- And, as always, get in touch with scott.anderson at yale.edu and marisa.vansaanen at yale.edu if you have questions or want to get more involved! Sincerely, Marisa and Scott -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sara.aronchick at gmail.com Thu Sep 18 11:20:52 2008 From: sara.aronchick at gmail.com (Sara Aronchick) Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:20:52 -0400 Subject: [YLS Blue] Hey from the trenches Message-ID: <3f213cbc0809180820h712835e2pb2165d6ebf0a225f@mail.gmail.com> Hey guys, I'm pretty sure this is the *uncensored* discussion list - right? Well under that assumption, I wanted to send a quick hello from the trenches of the campaign! I have been helping out the economic policy team since the end of July, and will be working from headquarters in Chicago through Nov 4th. I work under Jason Furman and Austan Goolsbee, the econ advisors for the campaign. Brian Deese is deputy economic director for the campaign and is the person I work with most closely. For those who know him, he is utterly brilliant and a treat to work with. So -- this week has been utterly insane. The last 90 hours have been among the most historic of financial markets history. The campaign has taken an active voice in responding to everything going on; blaming the Republicans for 8 years of deregulatory / ideological economic policy that has created this mess; put forth a new vision under Obama and explained several REAL things that he would do to change course in the financial markets and economy more broadly. My perspective on this is: everything going on in the financial markets is mind blowing, mostly because our govt and financial institutions are facing utterly unprecedented challenges and decisions, in very real time. In the last few days, we have seen the Fed and Treasury almost act outside the bounds of "law", because law has not been created yet to govern certain things going on -- eg, what rules/laws tell a central bank how to govern the world's largest insurance company after it gains an 80% equity stake?? Anyway, I'd love some discussion from people on these issues and what they think about everything they are reading. I wanted to share a few things below, which should at least give us some optimism regarding the campaign. The best news is: Palin is off the front pages, and voters seem to trust us more on the economy. More soon, Sara ---------- Recent upticks in the polls, centered on the economy. The two polls everyone is mentioning are: - CBS/NYTIMES (Poll conducted Friday through Tues) : *Obama + 5 (49/44*) - QUINIPIAC: *Obama + 4 (49/45)* **14 point lead among women AND ** Winning on tax cuts (51% voters say McCain's tax cut wil benefit the rich; 55% say Obama's tax will benefit middle class and poor) Sara *Fundamentally, McCain Has Something to Worry About* By Dan Balz Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, September 18, 2008; A03 John McCain has a fundamentals problem. It is political as well as economic, and it remains the biggest obstacle standing between the Arizona senator and the White House . McCain didn't single-handedly create this problem, but he made it worse Monday when, as Wall Streetwas melting down, he uttered words -- "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" -- that totally muddied the real message he meant to deliver. Barack Obama has hammered him at every stop since as a man out of touch with reality. Were McCain known as a student of the economy, this instance of a badly delivered statement would matter little. Because he is known as someone who is not, it matters plenty. McCain has responded by ratcheting up his rhetoric about cracking down on Wall Street and its regulators in Washington. As with his Monday misstep, once again the message is mixed. Guns blazing, McCain is promising to ride into town to . . . oversee the creation of a commission to study the problem. He is speaking out in favor of regulation but against a history of opposing a heavy government hand. He has expressed his outrage, but what is the balance he would strike between the old and new McCain? In many ways, the opening provided to Obama by McCain's verbal misstep is the least of his problems. What should worry the McCain camp most is the intersection of a renewed focus on the economy and the underlying political climate that has created such difficulties for McCain and his party all year. McCain's advisers have noted for months that the political environment could hardly be worse for their candidate. None of them has ever suggested that the political fundamentals remain sound. Quite the opposite. President Bush's approval rating appears stuck close to its lowest-ever levels -- hovering just above 30 percent. Nearly eight in 10 Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. The Republican Party's image is worse than the Democrats' and well below the levels it reached when Bush won reelection four years ago. McCain's party made gains after his convention, but it's not clear whether that was a temporary or lasting improvement. Four years ago on Election Day, the exit polls showed an electorate at parity between Republicans and Democrats. That's not likely to be the case in November. Combine that with the economic indicators. The stock market's plunge has wiped out recent gains and more. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.1 percent and has risen a full percentage point since March. Four years ago this month, it was at 5.4 percent and heading down. The economy has been shedding jobs monthly throughout the year. In the past, the unemployment rate was the most sensitive political indicator. Today, both the jobless rate and the stock market can send shivers of anxiety through the electorate -- as they are this week. Nothing in all of that is good for John McCain's hopes of winning the White House. Only once since World War II has a political party maintained control of the presidency for three consecutive terms, which was from 1981 to 1993, with Republicans Ronald Reaganand George H.W. Bush. Dwight Eisenhower's eight years were followed by John F. Kennedyand Lyndon Johnson's eight years, which were followed by Richard Nixonand Gerald Ford's eight years, which were followed by Jimmy Carter's four years. Voters declined to give Democrats a third term after Bill Clinton's presidency, despite a robust economy and a nation at peace. After the tumult of George W. Bush's eight years, what might compel voters to reward the Republicans with a third consecutive term in control of the White House? McCain has managed to make the best of this terrible environment. His pick of Sarah Palinproved enormously effective in the short term. His party appears newly energized, even enthusiastic about its ticket, even if they still distrust the man at the top of it. He has reinvented himself for the final stretch of the campaign -- or perhaps found a voice that had been missing throughout this election cycle. As in the primaries, he has been reduced to basics, and they have served him well over the past two months. His best hope of winning is to make the campaign a test of character. How long can he sustain all this? Absent external events, he was doing well. With the economic news of this week, the polls hint at a deflation in his position. The playing field has once again tilted slightly toward Obama, who now must take advantage of it. This remains as competitive a race as many had forecast. National polls are tight. Battleground states are tight. But the underlying structure that has governed this campaign from the start has not improved. That is the real fundamentals problem for John McCain. September 18, 2008 McCain Seen as Less Likely to Bring Change, Poll Finds By ROBIN TONERand ADAM NAGOURNEY WASHINGTON ? Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCainis seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a "typical Republican" who would continue or expand President Bush's policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support ? particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palinof Alaska as his running mate ? but the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest. The contest appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support of 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, a difference within the poll's margin of sampling error, and statistically unchanged from the tally in the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in mid-August. The poll showed that Mr. McCain had some enduring strengths, including a substantial advantage over Mr. Obama as a potential commander in chief. It found that for the first time, 50 percent of those surveyed in the Times/CBS News poll said they considered that the troop buildup in Iraq, a policy that Mr. McCain championed from the start, had made things better there. The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain's convention, and his selection of Ms. Palin, had excited Republican base voters about his candidacy, which is no small thing in a contest that continues to be so tight: 47 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters described themselves as enthused about the Republican Party's presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions. As often happens at this time of year, partisans are coalescing around their party's nominees and independents are increasingly the battleground. But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women, 44 percent to 37 percent. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerryof Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women. Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents, and a 16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44. Mr. McCain was leading by 17 points among white men and by the same margin among voters 65 and over. Before the convention, voters 65 and older were closely divided. In the latest poll, middle-age voters, 45 to 64, were almost evenly divided between the two. The latest Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll was taken Friday through Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all respondents and for registered voters. The poll was taken during a period of extraordinary turmoil on Wall Street. By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the top issue affecting their vote decision, and they continued to express deep pessimism about the nation's economic future. They continued to express greater confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to manage the economy, even as Mr. McCain has aggressively sought to raise doubts about it. This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin's qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr.of Delaware, Mr. Obama's running mate. More than 6 in 10 said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines. And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Ms. Palin more to help him win the election than because he thought that she was well qualified to be president; by contrast, 31 percent said they thought that Mr. Obama had picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was well qualified for the job. This poll was taken right after Ms. Palin sat down for a series of high-profile interviews with Charles Gibsonon ABC News. Over the last two weeks, Mr. McCain has increasingly tried to distance himself from his party and President Bush, running as an outsider against Washington. The poll suggested the urgency of Mr. McCain's task: The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is conducting his job, 68 percent, was as high as it has been for any sitting president in the history of New York Times polling. And 81 percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction. The poll found that 46 percent of voters thought Mr. McCain would continue Mr. Bush's policies, while 22 percent said he would be more conservative than Mr. Bush. (About one-quarter said a McCain presidency would be less conservative than Mr. Bush's.) At a time when Mr. McCain has tried to appeal to independent voters by separating himself from his party, notably with his convention speech, 57 percent of all voters said they viewed him as a typical Republican, compared with 40 percent who said he was a different kind of Republican. Although nearly half of voters also described Mr. Obama as a typical Democrat, the party's brand is not as diminished as the Republicans'; the Democratic Partyhad a favorability rating of 50 percent in August, compared with 37 percent for the Republicans, a fairly consistent trend in the Times/CBS News Poll since 2006, and part of the general political landscape that many analysts believe favors the Democrats. In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37 percent said that Mr. McCain would bring real change to Washington, up from 28 percent before the two parties' conventions. But 65 percent of those polled said that Mr. Obama would bring real change to Washington. Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Mr. Obama has maintained an edge on several key measures of presidential leadership, including economic stewardship. Sixty percent of voters said they were confident in his ability to make the right decisions on the economy, compared with 53 percent who felt that way about Mr. McCain. Sixty percent also said he understood the needs and problems "of people like yourself," compared with 48 percent who said that of Mr. McCain. More than twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the image of the United States around the world, 55 percent, compared with those who believed a McCain presidency would do so. Mr. Obama also gets high marks for "sharing the values most Americans try to live by," despite concerted Republican efforts to portray him as elite and out of touch with average voters. Sixty-six percent said Mr. Obama shared their values, compared with 61 percent who said that about Mr. McCain. Mr. McCain, however, was maintaining some core advantages, particularly on preparedness to be president and ability to serve as commander in chief. Forty-eight percent said Mr. Obama was prepared enough to be president, compared with 71 percent who rated Mr. McCain as adequately prepared. Fifty-two percent said it was "very likely" that Mr. McCain would be an effective commander in chief, twice as many as felt that way about Mr. Obama. The two men received similar rankings when voters were asked about what had long been perceived as a McCain strength: the ability to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Fifty-two percent said they were "very" or "somewhat" confident in Mr. Obama's ability on this front; 56 percent said they felt that way about Mr. McCain. In general, Ms. Palin was viewed more favorably (40 percent) than unfavorably (30 percent). She was particularly popular among fellow Republicans, conservatives and white voters who describe themselves as evangelical Christians, which explains her energizing effect on the Republican base. Nearly 70 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Ms. Palin; 27 percent of Mr. Obama's supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Mr. Biden. When asked who they thought would win in November, 45 percent said Mr. Obama and 38 percent said Mr. McCain. Reporting was contributed by Marjorie Connelly in Washington, and Marina Stefan, Dalia Sussman and Megan Thee in New York. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ami.parekh at yale.edu Thu Sep 18 17:49:10 2008 From: ami.parekh at yale.edu (Ami Parekh) Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:49:10 -0400 Subject: [YLS Blue] Hey from the trenches In-Reply-To: <3f213cbc0809180820h712835e2pb2165d6ebf0a225f@mail.gmail.com> References: <3f213cbc0809180820h712835e2pb2165d6ebf0a225f@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <000BB162-34D0-47AB-A31D-E42A55A91D7A@yale.edu> Sara!! Great to hear from you. Two numbers that I think would really help our message of "regulation, when done well, can save the taxpayers money": Approximately how much per taxpayer is this meltdown costing? How much could have been saved if the government checked things when Obama proposed legislation to stop all transactions involving subprime mortgages? I am sure there are ways to back calculate these two figures that may help in messaging. Hope you are well =) Ami On Sep 18, 2008, at 11:20 AM, Sara Aronchick wrote: > Hey guys, > > I'm pretty sure this is the *uncensored* discussion list - right? > Well under that assumption, I wanted to send a quick hello from the > trenches of the campaign! I have been helping out the economic > policy team since the end of July, and will be working from > headquarters in Chicago through Nov 4th. I work under Jason Furman > and Austan Goolsbee, the econ advisors for the campaign. Brian > Deese is deputy economic director for the campaign and is the > person I work with most closely. For those who know him, he is > utterly brilliant and a treat to work with. > > So -- this week has been utterly insane. The last 90 hours have > been among the most historic of financial markets history. The > campaign has taken an active voice in responding to everything > going on; blaming the Republicans for 8 years of deregulatory / > ideological economic policy that has created this mess; put forth a > new vision under Obama and explained several REAL things that he > would do to change course in the financial markets and economy more > broadly. > > My perspective on this is: everything going on in the financial > markets is mind blowing, mostly because our govt and financial > institutions are facing utterly unprecedented challenges and > decisions, in very real time. In the last few days, we have seen > the Fed and Treasury almost act outside the bounds of "law", > because law has not been created yet to govern certain things going > on -- eg, what rules/laws tell a central bank how to govern the > world's largest insurance company after it gains an 80% equity stake?? > > Anyway, I'd love some discussion from people on these issues and > what they think about everything they are reading. I wanted to > share a few things below, which should at least give us some > optimism regarding the campaign. The best news is: Palin is off the > front pages, and voters seem to trust us more on the economy. > > More soon, > > Sara > > ---------- > Recent upticks in the polls, centered on the economy. > > The two polls everyone is mentioning are: > > CBS/NYTIMES (Poll conducted Friday through Tues) : Obama + 5 (49/44) > > QUINIPIAC: Obama + 4 (49/45) **14 point lead among women AND ** > Winning on tax cuts (51% voters say McCain's tax cut wil benefit > the rich; 55% say Obama's tax will benefit middle class and poor) > > > Sara > > > Fundamentally, McCain Has Something to Worry About > By Dan Balz > Washington Post Staff Writer > Thursday, September 18, 2008; A03 > > John McCain has a fundamentals problem. It is political as well as > economic, and it remains the biggest obstacle standing between the > Arizona senator and the White House. > > McCain didn't single-handedly create this problem, but he made it > worse Monday when, as Wall Street was melting down, he uttered > words -- "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" -- that > totally muddied the real message he meant to deliver. Barack Obama > has hammered him at every stop since as a man out of touch with > reality. > > Were McCain known as a student of the economy, this instance of a > badly delivered statement would matter little. Because he is known > as someone who is not, it matters plenty. McCain has responded by > ratcheting up his rhetoric about cracking down on Wall Street and > its regulators in Washington. > > As with his Monday misstep, once again the message is mixed. Guns > blazing, McCain is promising to ride into town to . . . oversee the > creation of a commission to study the problem. He is speaking out > in favor of regulation but against a history of opposing a heavy > government hand. He has expressed his outrage, but what is the > balance he would strike between the old and new McCain? > > In many ways, the opening provided to Obama by McCain's verbal > misstep is the least of his problems. What should worry the McCain > camp most is the intersection of a renewed focus on the economy and > the underlying political climate that has created such difficulties > for McCain and his party all year. > > McCain's advisers have noted for months that the political > environment could hardly be worse for their candidate. None of them > has ever suggested that the political fundamentals remain sound. > Quite the opposite. > > President Bush's approval rating appears stuck close to its lowest- > ever levels -- hovering just above 30 percent. Nearly eight in 10 > Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. > The Republican Party's image is worse than the Democrats' and well > below the levels it reached when Bush won reelection four years ago. > > McCain's party made gains after his convention, but it's not clear > whether that was a temporary or lasting improvement. Four years ago > on Election Day, the exit polls showed an electorate at parity > between Republicans and Democrats. That's not likely to be the case > in November. > > Combine that with the economic indicators. The stock market's > plunge has wiped out recent gains and more. The unemployment rate > now stands at 6.1 percent and has risen a full percentage point > since March. Four years ago this month, it was at 5.4 percent and > heading down. The economy has been shedding jobs monthly throughout > the year. > > In the past, the unemployment rate was the most sensitive political > indicator. Today, both the jobless rate and the stock market can > send shivers of anxiety through the electorate -- as they are this > week. Nothing in all of that is good for John McCain's hopes of > winning the White House. > > Only once since World War II has a political party maintained > control of the presidency for three consecutive terms, which was > from 1981 to 1993, with Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. > Bush. Dwight Eisenhower's eight years were followed by John F. > Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson's eight years, which were followed by > Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford's eight years, which were followed by > Jimmy Carter's four years. > > Voters declined to give Democrats a third term after Bill Clinton's > presidency, despite a robust economy and a nation at peace. After > the tumult of George W. Bush's eight years, what might compel > voters to reward the Republicans with a third consecutive term in > control of the White House? > > McCain has managed to make the best of this terrible environment. > His pick of Sarah Palin proved enormously effective in the short > term. His party appears newly energized, even enthusiastic about > its ticket, even if they still distrust the man at the top of it. > > He has reinvented himself for the final stretch of the campaign -- > or perhaps found a voice that had been missing throughout this > election cycle. As in the primaries, he has been reduced to basics, > and they have served him well over the past two months. His best > hope of winning is to make the campaign a test of character. > > How long can he sustain all this? Absent external events, he was > doing well. With the economic news of this week, the polls hint at > a deflation in his position. The playing field has once again > tilted slightly toward Obama, who now must take advantage of it. > > This remains as competitive a race as many had forecast. National > polls are tight. Battleground states are tight. But the underlying > structure that has governed this campaign from the start has not > improved. That is the real fundamentals problem for John McCain. > > > > > September 18, 2008 > McCain Seen as Less Likely to Bring Change, Poll Finds > > By ROBIN TONER and ADAM NAGOURNEY > WASHINGTON ? Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the > way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain > is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington > than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a "typical > Republican" who would continue or expand President Bush's policies, > according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. > > Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. > McCain had enjoyed a surge of support ? particularly among white > women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his > running mate ? but the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" > was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest. The contest > appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and > before the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support > of 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 43 percent for > Mr. McCain, a difference within the poll's margin of sampling > error, and statistically unchanged from the tally in the last New > York Times/CBS News poll, in mid-August. > > The poll showed that Mr. McCain had some enduring strengths, > including a substantial advantage over Mr. Obama as a potential > commander in chief. It found that for the first time, 50 percent of > those surveyed in the Times/CBS News poll said they considered that > the troop buildup in Iraq, a policy that Mr. McCain championed from > the start, had made things better there. > > The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain's > convention, and his selection of Ms. Palin, had excited Republican > base voters about his candidacy, which is no small thing in a > contest that continues to be so tight: 47 percent of Mr. McCain's > supporters described themselves as enthused about the Republican > Party's presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the > conventions. As often happens at this time of year, partisans are > coalescing around their party's nominees and independents are > increasingly the battleground. > > But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection > has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; > there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him > among women in general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. > McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. > Obama among white women, 44 percent to 37 percent. > > By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was > leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic > challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women. > > Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents, > and a 16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44. Mr. > McCain was leading by 17 points among white men and by the same > margin among voters 65 and over. Before the convention, voters 65 > and older were closely divided. In the latest poll, middle-age > voters, 45 to 64, were almost evenly divided between the two. > > The latest Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll was taken > Friday through Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 > registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus > three percentage points for all respondents and for registered voters. > > The poll was taken during a period of extraordinary turmoil on Wall > Street. By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the > top issue affecting their vote decision, and they continued to > express deep pessimism about the nation's economic future. They > continued to express greater confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to > manage the economy, even as Mr. McCain has aggressively sought to > raise doubts about it. > > This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin's > qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator > Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama's running mate. More > than 6 in 10 said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not > finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two- > thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take > over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines. > > And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Ms. Palin > more to help him win the election than because he thought that she > was well qualified to be president; by contrast, 31 percent said > they thought that Mr. Obama had picked Mr. Biden more to help him > win the election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought > Mr. Biden was well qualified for the job. > > This poll was taken right after Ms. Palin sat down for a series of > high-profile interviews with Charles Gibson on ABC News. > > Over the last two weeks, Mr. McCain has increasingly tried to > distance himself from his party and President Bush, running as an > outsider against Washington. The poll suggested the urgency of Mr. > McCain's task: The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the > way Mr. Bush is conducting his job, 68 percent, was as high as it > has been for any sitting president in the history of New York Times > polling. And 81 percent said the country was heading in the wrong > direction. > > The poll found that 46 percent of voters thought Mr. McCain would > continue Mr. Bush's policies, while 22 percent said he would be > more conservative than Mr. Bush. (About one-quarter said a McCain > presidency would be less conservative than Mr. Bush's.) At a time > when Mr. McCain has tried to appeal to independent voters by > separating himself from his party, notably with his convention > speech, 57 percent of all voters said they viewed him as a typical > Republican, compared with 40 percent who said he was a different > kind of Republican. > > Although nearly half of voters also described Mr. Obama as a > typical Democrat, the party's brand is not as diminished as the > Republicans'; the Democratic Party had a favorability rating of 50 > percent in August, compared with 37 percent for the Republicans, a > fairly consistent trend in the Times/CBS News Poll since 2006, and > part of the general political landscape that many analysts believe > favors the Democrats. > > In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37 > percent said that Mr. McCain would bring real change to Washington, > up from 28 percent before the two parties' conventions. But 65 > percent of those polled said that Mr. Obama would bring real change > to Washington. > > Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Mr. Obama has > maintained an edge on several key measures of presidential > leadership, including economic stewardship. Sixty percent of voters > said they were confident in his ability to make the right decisions > on the economy, compared with 53 percent who felt that way about > Mr. McCain. Sixty percent also said he understood the needs and > problems "of people like yourself," compared with 48 percent who > said that of Mr. McCain. > > More than twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the > image of the United States around the world, 55 percent, compared > with those who believed a McCain presidency would do so. Mr. Obama > also gets high marks for "sharing the values most Americans try to > live by," despite concerted Republican efforts to portray him as > elite and out of touch with average voters. Sixty-six percent said > Mr. Obama shared their values, compared with 61 percent who said > that about Mr. McCain. > > Mr. McCain, however, was maintaining some core advantages, > particularly on preparedness to be president and ability to serve > as commander in chief. Forty-eight percent said Mr. Obama was > prepared enough to be president, compared with 71 percent who rated > Mr. McCain as adequately prepared. > > Fifty-two percent said it was "very likely" that Mr. McCain would > be an effective commander in chief, twice as many as felt that way > about Mr. Obama. > > The two men received similar rankings when voters were asked about > what had long been perceived as a McCain strength: the ability to > make the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Fifty-two percent > said they were "very" or "somewhat" confident in Mr. Obama's > ability on this front; 56 percent said they felt that way about Mr. > McCain. > > In general, Ms. Palin was viewed more favorably (40 percent) than > unfavorably (30 percent). She was particularly popular among fellow > Republicans, conservatives and white voters who describe themselves > as evangelical Christians, which explains her energizing effect on > the Republican base. Nearly 70 percent of Mr. McCain's supporters > said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Ms. Palin; 27 > percent of Mr. Obama's supporters said they were enthusiastic about > the selection of Mr. Biden. > > When asked who they thought would win in November, 45 percent said > Mr. Obama and 38 percent said Mr. McCain. > > Reporting was contributed by Marjorie Connelly in Washington, and > Marina Stefan, Dalia Sussman and Megan Thee in New York. > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > yls-blue mailing list > yls-blue at bantha.org > http://www.bantha.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/yls-blue -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: